CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-07-31T23:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-07-31T23:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26283/-1
CME Note: This CME is first seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2023-07-31T23:36Z in both white light and difference imagery. The source of this CME is likely the northern portion (from N15 to S10) of a filament which erupted at central meridian and seems to have deflected to the NE as seen in UV imagery. The northern portion of the filament seems to lift off at about 2023-07-31T17:30Z, as seen in SDO AIA 304 (though, it is difficult to discern exact time due to having only a face-on view of the solar disk). This CME overlaps with a prior CME which likely has a source on the far side of the solar disk. Arrival signature: Rapid magnetic field enhancement from 10 nT to 15-16 nT starting around 2023-08-04T06:52Z with simultaneous increases in solar wind velocity and temperature parameters. Possibly merged with 2023-07-31T23:12Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-08-04T06:52Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-08-04T06:15Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 100.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.5 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: -18.02 hour(s)
Difference: 0.62 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2023-08-05T00:53Z
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